Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat preview
Alebrijes de Oaxaca hosts Correcaminos Uat with a 38% chance for the visitors to win compared to 35% for the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which suggests that Correcaminos Uat could take all three points. However, Alebrijes de Oaxaca has won 6 of their last 10 encounters, which could influence the match outcome.
The match shows a 52% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood for both teams to score. Expected goals indicate Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 1.29 and Correcaminos Uat at 1.46. Recent form reveals Alebrijes de Oaxaca struggling with three losses in their last five matches, while Correcaminos Uat has drawn three times in their recent outings.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat: model vs market
| Source | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Draw | Correcaminos Uat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +3% |
- The market prices Correcaminos Uat below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Correcaminos Uat, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 2.53 | 2.55 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.37 | 3.34 | -0.03 |
| Correcaminos Uat | 2.45 | 2.41 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Correcaminos Uat expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Alebrijes de Oaxaca / Correcaminos Uat)
- 0.65 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Alebrijes de Oaxaca / Correcaminos Uat)
- 1.33 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals. Columns: Correcaminos Uat goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 35% | 2.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Correcaminos Uat | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Correcaminos Uat) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Correcaminos Uat win by 2+ | 20% | 5.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca and Correcaminos Uat recent form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1W 1D 4L
Correcaminos Uat
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Correcaminos Uat away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alebrijes de Oaxaca at home only, Correcaminos Uat away only.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 6 · draws 2 · Correcaminos Uat 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Correcaminos Uat | 1-3 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-11-08 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 1-1 | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-03-01 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 0-1 | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-09-13 | Correcaminos Uat | 1-3 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2024-02-07 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 1-0 | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-08-30 | Correcaminos Uat | 7-0 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2023-02-24 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 4-0 | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-07-27 | Correcaminos Uat | 0-0 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-04-13 | Correcaminos Uat | 0-1 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2021-11-03 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 2-1 | Correcaminos Uat | Liga de Expansión MX |
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