Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo: model vs market
| Source | Dorados | Draw | Cruz Azul Hidalgo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Dorados / Cruz Azul Hidalgo)
- 1.12 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Dorados / Cruz Azul Hidalgo)
- 1.24 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dorados goals. Columns: Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dorados vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dorados | 61% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dorados or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruz Azul Hidalgo) | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dorados win by 2+ | 39% | 2.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dorados and Cruz Azul Hidalgo recent form
Dorados
2W 2D 2L
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dorados at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dorados at home only, Cruz Azul Hidalgo away only.
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