Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún: model vs market
| Source | Mineros de Zacatecas | Draw | Cancún |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.35.
- The market prices Mineros de Zacatecas below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mineros de Zacatecas, 5 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 2.01 | 2.00 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.45 | +0.02 |
| Cancún | 3.23 | 3.25 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mineros de Zacatecas and Cancún expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Mineros de Zacatecas / Cancún)
- 1.18 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Mineros de Zacatecas / Cancún)
- 1.07 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mineros de Zacatecas goals. Columns: Cancún goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 46% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Cancún | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mineros de Zacatecas or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Cancún) | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mineros de Zacatecas win by 2+ | 28% | 3.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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| 3 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mineros de Zacatecas and Cancún recent form
Mineros de Zacatecas
3W 0D 3L
Cancún
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mineros de Zacatecas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Cancún away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mineros de Zacatecas at home only, Cancún away only.
Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mineros de Zacatecas 0 · draws 1 · Cancún 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Cancún | 4-1 | Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-06 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 0-0 | Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
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