CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango: model vs market
| Source | CDS Tampico Madero | Draw | Durango |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 31% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 31% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CDS Tampico Madero and Durango expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (CDS Tampico Madero / Durango)
- 0.79 / 0.89
- Defence rating (CDS Tampico Madero / Durango)
- 1.15 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CDS Tampico Madero goals. Columns: Durango goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CDS Tampico Madero vs Durango
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CDS Tampico Madero | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Durango | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CDS Tampico Madero or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Durango) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Durango win by 2+ | 16% | 6.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CDS Tampico Madero and Durango recent form
CDS Tampico Madero
1W 1D 4L
Durango
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CDS Tampico Madero at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Durango away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CDS Tampico Madero at home only, Durango away only.
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Correcaminos Uat — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Tapatío vs CA La Paz 2026-10-09
- Tepatitlán v Monarcas — match page 2026-10-10
- Tlaxcala vs Piratas — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG 2026-10-10
- Dorados v Cruz Azul Hidalgo — match page 2026-10-11
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún — team news & stats 2026-10-11