CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture between CA La Paz and Tlaxcala, the 1X2 probabilities show CA La Paz at 73%, Tlaxcala at 12%, and a draw at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. CA La Paz has an expected goals figure of 2.97, while Tlaxcala sits at 1.19.
The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 67%. However, CA La Paz's recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, while Tlaxcala has two wins in the same number of games. A surprising result could arise if Tlaxcala improves their scoring efficiency or if CA La Paz underperforms.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala: model vs market
| Source | CA La Paz | Draw | Tlaxcala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 73% | 15% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.16
- Attack rating (CA La Paz / Tlaxcala)
- 1.41 / 1.11
- Defence rating (CA La Paz / Tlaxcala)
- 0.93 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CA La Paz goals. Columns: Tlaxcala goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CA La Paz | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.47 | |
| Tlaxcala | 12% | 8.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CA La Paz or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Tlaxcala) | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | CA La Paz win by 2+ | 54% | 1.85 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CA La Paz and Tlaxcala recent form
CA La Paz
4W 1D 1L
Tlaxcala
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CA La Paz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Tlaxcala away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 6 penalties (50%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CA La Paz at home only, Tlaxcala away only.
CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: CA La Paz 1 · draws 1 · Tlaxcala 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | CA La Paz | 2-0 | Tlaxcala | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2025-09-28 | Tlaxcala | 3-3 | CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Correcaminos Uat v Dorados — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- CA La Paz, previous: Tapatío vs CA La Paz prediction
- Tlaxcala, previous: Tlaxcala v Piratas analysis