Durango vs Tapatío preview
In the Liga de Expansión MX fixture between Durango and Tapatío, the 1X2 probabilities show Durango at 56% to win, compared to Tapatío's 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% chance. Durango has an expected goals figure of 1.71, while Tapatío sits at 0.87, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 48%, and both teams to score is at 49%. Tapatío's recent form includes three losses in their last five matches, while Durango has shown more consistency with three wins in that period. This disparity in form could influence the outcome.
Durango vs Tapatío: model vs market
| Source | Durango | Draw | Tapatío |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Durango and Tapatío expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Durango / Tapatío)
- 0.80 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Durango / Tapatío)
- 0.69 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Durango vs Tapatío score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Durango goals. Columns: Tapatío goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Durango vs Tapatío goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Durango vs Tapatío
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Durango | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Tapatío | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Durango or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Tapatío) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | Durango win by 2+ | 28% | 3.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Durango and Tapatío recent form
Durango
3W 2D 1L
Tapatío
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Durango at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Tapatío away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Durango at home only, Tapatío away only.
Durango vs Tapatío head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Durango 0 · draws 0 · Tapatío 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-12 | Durango | 2-5 | Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| 2022-06-30 | Tapatío | 3-1 | Durango | Liga de Expansión MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Correcaminos Uat v Dorados — match page 2026-10-17
- CA La Paz vs Tlaxcala 2026-10-17
- Cruz Azul Hidalgo v Mineros de Zacatecas — match page 2026-10-17
- Monarcas vs CDS Tampico Madero — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Cancún vs Venados FC 2026-10-18
- Piratas v Tepatitlán — match page 2026-10-18
- Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Durango, previous: CDS Tampico Madero v Durango analysis
- Tapatío, previous: Tapatío v Tepatitlán analysis