Updated

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 13

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

· Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara· Referee L. A. Garcia Olvera

Alin prediction Leones Negros UDG to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 3 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Leones Negros UDGDrawAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Best market odds
Leones Negros UDG1.38 Draw5.40 Alebrijes de Oaxaca8.00

Price as of

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca preview

In the Liga de Expansión MX, Leones Negros UDG faces Alebrijes de Oaxaca with a 71% probability for a home win compared to just 12% for the visitors. The expected goals show a significant difference, with Leones Negros UDG at 3.13 and Alebrijes de Oaxaca at 0.84, suggesting a potential scoreline of 3-0, which aligns with a 76% chance for Over 2.5 goals.

However, recent form indicates that Leones Negros UDG has drawn and won in their last three matches, while Alebrijes de Oaxaca has struggled, winning only 1 of their last 6 games. This could affect the outcome, especially given their head-to-head record, where Alebrijes de Oaxaca has 1 win and 1 draw against Leones Negros UDG.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeones Negros UDGDrawAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Model81%12%6%
Market69%18%13%
Published72%17%11%
Edge+13%-6%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Leones Negros UDG below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leones Negros UDG, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.35Now 1.32 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leones Negros UDG1.351.32-0.03
Draw4.704.92+0.22
Alebrijes de Oaxaca6.507.17+0.67

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leones Negros UDG and Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.13Leones Negros UDG
0.84Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Total expected goals
3.97
Attack rating (Leones Negros UDG / Alebrijes de Oaxaca)
1.38 / 0.72
Defence rating (Leones Negros UDG / Alebrijes de Oaxaca)
1.00 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1 5.4% 5.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2 9.3% 7.8% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 3 9.6% 8.1% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% 4+ 16.4% 13.8% 5.8% 1.6% 0.4%

Rows: Leones Negros UDG goals. Columns: Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leones Negros UDG72%1.39
Draw17%5.91
Alebrijes de Oaxaca11%9.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.11
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.82
No45%2.22
Double chance1X (Leones Negros UDG or draw)89%1.12
12 (either side)83%1.20
X2 (draw or Alebrijes de Oaxaca)28%3.57
Handicap -1Leones Negros UDG win by 2+64%1.56
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Leones Negros UDG and Alebrijes de Oaxaca recent form

Leones Negros UDG 3W 2D 1L
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leones Negros UDG at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
2.80
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.

Alebrijes de Oaxaca away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-5
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Leones Negros UDG at home only, Alebrijes de Oaxaca away only.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Leones Negros UDG 3 · draws 6 · Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.

Leones Negros UDGDrawsAlebrijes de Oaxaca
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-28Alebrijes de Oaxaca1-1Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2025-10-18Leones Negros UDG0-1Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX
2025-03-16Leones Negros UDG3-2Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX
2024-09-29Alebrijes de Oaxaca2-2Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2024-02-15Alebrijes de Oaxaca0-3Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2023-08-04Leones Negros UDG5-0Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX
2023-03-15Alebrijes de Oaxaca2-2Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2022-06-26Leones Negros UDG0-0Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX
2022-01-20Alebrijes de Oaxaca1-1Leones Negros UDGLiga de Expansión MX
2021-08-29Leones Negros UDG1-1Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX

Other Apertura - 13 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Leones Negros UDG to win Predicted score 3 – 0 C Bet on Leones Negros UDG
Our pick: Leones Negros UDG to win 18+ Bet Now