Club America vs Club Tijuana preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Club America and Club Tijuana, the 1X2 probabilities show Club America at 71%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 8%. Club America has a strong recent form of W-W-D-W-D-L, while Club Tijuana has struggled with D-D-D-L-D-L.
The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 67%. However, Club Tijuana's low expected goals of 1.23 could impact their ability to contribute to the scoreline. With a confidence grade of C, there is room for unpredictability in this match.
Club America vs Club Tijuana: model vs market
| Source | Club America | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 12 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +14.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Club America vs Club Tijuana odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Club America, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | 1.56 | 1.57 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.98 | -0.02 |
| Club Tijuana | 5.43 | 5.26 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club America and Club Tijuana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.12
- Attack rating (Club America / Club Tijuana)
- 1.69 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Club America / Club Tijuana)
- 1.11 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club America vs Club Tijuana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club America goals. Columns: Club Tijuana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club America vs Club Tijuana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club America vs Club Tijuana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 71% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.14 | |
| Club Tijuana | 13% | 7.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club America or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Tijuana) | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win by 2+ | 52% | 1.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club America and Club Tijuana recent form
Club America
3W 2D 1L
Club Tijuana
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club America at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Club Tijuana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Club America at home only, Club Tijuana away only.
Club America vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Club America 5 · draws 4 · Club Tijuana 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Club Tijuana | 0-0 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2025-07-17 | Club America | 3-1 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 2025-01-17 | Club America | 1-1 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 2024-11-22 | Club Tijuana | 2-2 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2024-10-24 | Club Tijuana | 2-2 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2024-01-14 | Club Tijuana | 0-2 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2023-11-05 | Club America | 3-0 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 2023-03-26 | Club America | 2-1 | Club Tijuana | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-02-20 | Club America | 2-1 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 2022-07-24 | Club Tijuana | 2-0 | Club America | Liga MX |
Before and after this match
- Club America, previous: Club America – CF Pachuca, 2026-10-26
- Club Tijuana, previous: Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna: odds and pick