Club America vs CF Pachuca preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Club America and CF Pachuca, the 1X2 probabilities show Club America at 59%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 (8%). Club America has an expected goals figure of 2.96, while CF Pachuca sits at 1.37. This suggests a strong attacking performance from Club America.
However, the recent form could influence the outcome. Club America has a mixed record with W-W-D-W-D-L, while CF Pachuca has struggled, recording L-L-D-L-D-W. The model indicates an 81% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 71% chance for both teams to score, but if CF Pachuca's form improves, it could challenge these predictions.
Club America vs CF Pachuca: model vs market
| Source | Club America | Draw | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 16% | 14% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Published | 62% | 20% | 17% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.97 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Club America below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Club America vs CF Pachuca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Club America, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | 1.67 | 1.55 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 4.25 | +0.43 |
| CF Pachuca | 4.60 | 5.01 | +0.41 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club America and CF Pachuca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.34
- Attack rating (Club America / CF Pachuca)
- 1.69 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Club America / CF Pachuca)
- 1.11 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club America vs CF Pachuca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club America goals. Columns: CF Pachuca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club America vs CF Pachuca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club America vs CF Pachuca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| CF Pachuca | 17% | 5.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club America or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or CF Pachuca) | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win by 2+ | 50% | 1.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club America and CF Pachuca recent form
Club America
3W 2D 1L
CF Pachuca
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club America at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
CF Pachuca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club America at home only, CF Pachuca away only.
Club America vs CF Pachuca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Club America 1 · draws 1 · CF Pachuca 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | CF Pachuca | 0-0 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2025-08-31 | Club America | 2-0 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Necaxa v FC Juarez — match page 2026-10-24
- Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Leon vs Toluca 2026-10-24
- Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas — match page 2026-10-25
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atlas vs Puebla 2026-10-25
- Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Club America, previous: Atlas vs Club America: odds and pick
- Club America, next: Club America – Club Tijuana, 2026-10-29
- CF Pachuca, previous: CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul analysis