Leon vs Toluca preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Leon and Toluca, the 1X2 probabilities show Leon at 37%, a draw at 25%, and Toluca slightly ahead at 38%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams are expected to score, with probabilities of 68% for "both teams to score" and 66% for "Over 2.5 goals".
Leon has an expected goals figure of 1.69, while Toluca is at 1.71. Recent form indicates Leon has 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Toluca has 3 wins in their last 6. The head-to-head record favors Toluca, with 5 wins in the last 10 encounters. A potential factor that could affect the outcome is the recent inconsistency in both teams' performances.
Leon vs Toluca: model vs market
| Source | Leon | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 43% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Leon vs Toluca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toluca, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 3.11 | 3.45 | +0.34 |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.65 | -0.01 |
| Toluca | 2.05 | 2.00 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leon and Toluca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Leon / Toluca)
- 1.13 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Leon / Toluca)
- 0.93 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leon vs Toluca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leon goals. Columns: Toluca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leon vs Toluca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leon vs Toluca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 31% | 3.19 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Toluca | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leon or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Toluca) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win by 2+ | 16% | 6.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leon and Toluca recent form
Leon
3W 2D 1L
Toluca
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Leon at home only, Toluca away only.
Leon vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Leon 1 · draws 4 · Toluca 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Toluca | 2-0 | Leon | Leagues Cup |
| 2026-04-26 | Toluca | 4-1 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-05 | Leon | 2-4 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-02-09 | Leon | 3-3 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2024-11-02 | Toluca | 2-2 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2024-02-03 | Toluca | 4-1 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2023-10-21 | Leon | 1-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2023-01-29 | Toluca | 0-0 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2022-07-27 | Leon | 0-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2022-05-02 | Leon | 4-4 | Toluca | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Necaxa v FC Juarez — match page 2026-10-24
- Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas — match page 2026-10-25
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atlas vs Puebla 2026-10-25
- Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Club America v CF Pachuca — match page 2026-10-26
- Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Leon, previous: Tigres UANL vs Leon prediction
- Toluca, previous: Toluca v Club Tijuana analysis