Atlas vs Puebla preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Atlas and Puebla, the 1X2 probabilities show Atlas at 52%, while Puebla sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% chance of occurring. Atlas has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.96 compared to Puebla's 1.13, suggesting they are more likely to score.
However, Atlas's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins and three losses in their last six matches. Puebla, on the other hand, has not won in their last six games, with four draws and two losses. This could impact the match's outcome, making it possible for Puebla to surprise despite their poor form. Both teams to score has a 59% chance, and there is a 60% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals.
Atlas vs Puebla: model vs market
| Source | Atlas | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atlas vs Puebla odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atlas, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 1.71 | 1.69 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.70 | +0.05 |
| Puebla | 4.45 | 4.69 | +0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atlas and Puebla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Atlas / Puebla)
- 1.06 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Atlas / Puebla)
- 1.25 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlas vs Puebla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlas goals. Columns: Puebla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlas vs Puebla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlas vs Puebla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Puebla | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlas or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Puebla) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlas win by 2+ | 33% | 2.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlas and Puebla recent form
Atlas
2W 2D 2L
Puebla
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-3
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Puebla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlas at home only, Puebla away only.
Atlas vs Puebla head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Atlas 2 · draws 0 · Puebla 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Atlas | 1-0 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 2025-07-12 | Puebla | 2-3 | Atlas | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Necaxa v FC Juarez — match page 2026-10-24
- Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Leon vs Toluca 2026-10-24
- Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas — match page 2026-10-25
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Club America v CF Pachuca — match page 2026-10-26
- Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Atlas, previous: Atlas vs Club America: odds and pick
- Atlas, next: Atletico San Luis – Atlas, 2026-10-31
- Puebla, previous: Puebla vs Monterrey prediction
- Puebla, next: Puebla v U.N.A.M. - Pumas analysis