Puebla vs Monterrey preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Puebla and Monterrey, the 1X2 probabilities show Puebla at 38%, Monterrey at 33%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a 9% probability. Puebla's expected goals stand at 1.34, slightly higher than Monterrey's 1.25.
While both teams to score has a 54% chance, recent form indicates challenges for both sides, with Puebla having 1 win in their last 6 matches and Monterrey with 1 win in their last 6 as well. The head-to-head record favors Monterrey, who has won both of the last two encounters. This context could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Puebla vs Monterrey: model vs market
| Source | Puebla | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Puebla and Monterrey expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (Puebla / Monterrey)
- 0.71 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Puebla / Monterrey)
- 0.93 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puebla vs Monterrey score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puebla goals. Columns: Monterrey goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puebla vs Monterrey goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puebla vs Monterrey
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 37% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.26 | |
| Monterrey | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puebla or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Monterrey) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puebla win by 2+ | 17% | 6.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Puebla and Monterrey recent form
Puebla
1W 3D 2L
Monterrey
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puebla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterrey away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puebla at home only, Monterrey away only.
Puebla vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Puebla 0 · draws 0 · Monterrey 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Monterrey | 2-1 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 2025-08-30 | Puebla | 2-4 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa — match page 2026-10-21
- FC Juarez v Atlante FC — match page 2026-10-21
- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Tigres UANL vs Leon 2026-10-21
- Toluca vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Atlas vs Club America 2026-10-22
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Puebla, previous: Club Tijuana v Puebla analysis
- Monterrey, previous: Monterrey – CF Pachuca, 2026-10-19