Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa, the 1X2 probabilities favor Guadalajara Chivas at 71%, while Necaxa stands at just 11%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an expected goals figure of 2.54 for Guadalajara Chivas and 0.95 for Necaxa.
Guadalajara Chivas has shown better recent form with two wins in their last five matches, while Necaxa has struggled, recording four losses in their last five outings. While our model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 57%, unexpected performances or defensive errors could alter the outcome.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa: model vs market
| Source | Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Guadalajara Chivas / Necaxa)
- 1.06 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Guadalajara Chivas / Necaxa)
- 0.80 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guadalajara Chivas goals. Columns: Necaxa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 72% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.57 | |
| Necaxa | 10% | 9.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guadalajara Chivas or draw) | 90% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Necaxa) | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win by 2+ | 50% | 2.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Guadalajara Chivas and Necaxa recent form
Guadalajara Chivas
2W 3D 1L
Necaxa
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guadalajara Chivas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guadalajara Chivas at home only, Necaxa away only.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Guadalajara Chivas 1 · draws 1 · Necaxa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Necaxa | 0-0 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-24 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3-1 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- FC Juarez v Atlante FC — match page 2026-10-21
- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Tigres UANL vs Leon 2026-10-21
- Toluca vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Atlas vs Club America 2026-10-22
- Puebla v Monterrey — match page 2026-10-22
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Guadalajara Chivas, previous: Guadalajara Chivas – Tigres UANL, 2026-10-17
- Necaxa, previous: Necaxa – Atlas, 2026-10-17
- Necaxa, next: Necaxa vs FC Juarez: odds and pick