CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul preview
In the Liga MX fixture between CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul, the 1X2 probabilities show CF Pachuca at 50% and Cruz Azul at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown decent form recently, with Pachuca recording D-L-D-W-W-D and Cruz Azul at D-D-L-W-W-W.
The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with 70% for Over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. This could mean unexpected performances from either team may lead to a different outcome than predicted.
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul: model vs market
| Source | CF Pachuca | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.52.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (CF Pachuca / Cruz Azul)
- 1.06 / 1.26
- Defence rating (CF Pachuca / Cruz Azul)
- 0.96 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CF Pachuca goals. Columns: Cruz Azul goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Cruz Azul | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CF Pachuca or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruz Azul) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win by 2+ | 30% | 3.34 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CF Pachuca and Cruz Azul recent form
CF Pachuca
2W 3D 1L
Cruz Azul
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CF Pachuca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: CF Pachuca at home only, Cruz Azul away only.
CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: CF Pachuca 1 · draws 0 · Cruz Azul 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cruz Azul | 1-2 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-13 | CF Pachuca | 0-1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
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- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Tigres UANL vs Leon 2026-10-21
- Toluca vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Atlas vs Club America 2026-10-22
- Puebla v Monterrey — match page 2026-10-22
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — team news & stats 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- CF Pachuca, previous: Monterrey – CF Pachuca, 2026-10-19
- Cruz Azul, previous: Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez prediction