Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez preview
Cruz Azul faces FC Juarez with a 70% chance of winning and an expected scoreline of 2-1, which is the most likely outcome at 9%. The model suggests a high probability for Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 64%. Cruz Azul has shown good recent form with two wins and a draw in their last three matches, while FC Juarez has struggled, losing four of their last six.
However, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty. If FC Juarez can improve their performance and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Cruz Azul, the outcome could differ from the model's predictions.
Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez: model vs market
| Source | Cruz Azul | Draw | FC Juarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Published | 71% | 18% | 12% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.36, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cruz Azul, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 1.31 | 1.31 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.10 | +0.10 |
| FC Juarez | 8.50 | 8.28 | -0.22 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cruz Azul and FC Juarez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.85
- Attack rating (Cruz Azul / FC Juarez)
- 1.26 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Cruz Azul / FC Juarez)
- 1.19 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cruz Azul goals. Columns: FC Juarez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 71% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.59 | |
| FC Juarez | 12% | 8.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cruz Azul or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Juarez) | 29% | 3.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win by 2+ | 50% | 2.01 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cruz Azul and FC Juarez recent form
Cruz Azul
3W 2D 1L
FC Juarez
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cruz Azul at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
FC Juarez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cruz Azul at home only, FC Juarez away only.
Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cruz Azul 7 · draws 2 · FC Juarez 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | FC Juarez | 3-4 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-20 | Cruz Azul | 3-2 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 2025-01-18 | FC Juarez | 1-0 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2024-10-24 | Cruz Azul | 4-0 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 2024-01-20 | FC Juarez | 0-0 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2023-11-02 | Cruz Azul | 2-0 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 2023-06-21 | Cruz Azul | 3-1 | FC Juarez | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-02-25 | Cruz Azul | 1-0 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 2022-09-03 | FC Juarez | 2-2 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2022-01-16 | Cruz Azul | 1-0 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Necaxa v Atlas — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-17
- Club Tijuana vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-17
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Toluca vs Atletico San Luis 2026-10-18
- Leon v Club America — match page 2026-10-18
- Monterrey vs CF Pachuca 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Cruz Azul, previous: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul prediction
- Cruz Azul, next: CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul analysis
- FC Juarez, previous: FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana: odds and pick
- FC Juarez, next: FC Juarez v Atlante FC analysis