Leon vs Club America preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Leon and Club America, the 1X2 probabilities show Club America at 39% to win, compared to Leon's 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which reflects the expected goals of 1.58 for Leon and 1.23 for Club America.
Both teams to score stands at 57%, while Over 2.5 goals has a probability of 53%. Recent form indicates Leon has a mixed record with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Club America has 2 wins and 3 draws. The head-to-head record shows Leon with 1 win, 5 draws, and 4 wins for Club America in their last 10 encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Leon vs Club America: model vs market
| Source | Leon | Draw | Club America |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +15% | +1% | -15% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Leon vs Club America odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Club America, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 3.05 | 3.13 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.52 | +0.06 |
| Club America | 2.17 | 2.09 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leon and Club America expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Leon / Club America)
- 1.00 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Leon / Club America)
- 0.74 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leon vs Club America score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leon goals. Columns: Club America goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leon vs Club America goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leon vs Club America
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 33% | 3.02 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Club America | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.74 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leon or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Club America) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win by 2+ | 12% | 8.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leon and Club America recent form
Leon
3W 2D 1L
Club America
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club America away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Leon at home only, Club America away only.
Leon vs Club America head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Leon 1 · draws 5 · Club America 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Leon | 1-0 | Club America | Leagues Cup |
| 2026-04-22 | Leon | 2-3 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-02 | Club America | 2-0 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2025-02-20 | Club America | 1-1 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2024-10-06 | Leon | 1-1 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2024-02-11 | Leon | 0-1 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2023-12-03 | Club America | 2-0 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2023-11-30 | Leon | 2-2 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2023-08-27 | Club America | 1-1 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2023-04-02 | Club America | 2-2 | Leon | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Necaxa v Atlas — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-17
- Club Tijuana vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-17
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Toluca vs Atletico San Luis 2026-10-18
- Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monterrey vs CF Pachuca 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Leon, previous: Puebla – Leon, 2026-10-10
- Leon, next: Tigres UANL vs Leon prediction
- Club America, previous: Club America – Monterrey, 2026-10-11
- Club America, next: Atlas vs Club America: odds and pick