Club Tijuana vs Puebla preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Club Tijuana and Puebla, the 1X2 probabilities show Club Tijuana at 49%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 (10%). The expected goals are 1.62 for Club Tijuana and 1.07 for Puebla, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side.
However, Club Tijuana's recent form includes 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Puebla has only 1 win in the same period. Both teams to score stands at 54%, suggesting a chance for goals from both sides, which could impact the outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Club Tijuana vs Puebla: model vs market
| Source | Club Tijuana | Draw | Puebla |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Club Tijuana and Puebla expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Club Tijuana / Puebla)
- 0.93 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Club Tijuana / Puebla)
- 1.11 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Tijuana vs Puebla score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Tijuana goals. Columns: Puebla goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Tijuana vs Puebla goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Tijuana vs Puebla
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Tijuana | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Puebla | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Tijuana or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Puebla) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Tijuana win by 2+ | 26% | 3.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Club Tijuana and Puebla recent form
Club Tijuana
2W 1D 3L
Puebla
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Tijuana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Puebla away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Tijuana at home only, Puebla away only.
Club Tijuana vs Puebla head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Club Tijuana 0 · draws 1 · Puebla 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Club Tijuana | 0-0 | Puebla | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-18 | Puebla | 4-3 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Necaxa v Atlas — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Club Tijuana, previous: FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana: odds and pick
- Puebla, previous: Puebla – Leon, 2026-10-10