Puebla vs Leon preview
Puebla faces Leon with a 41% probability for an away win in the 1X2 market. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects Leon's expected goals of 1.37 compared to Puebla's 0.95. This suggests Leon may have the upper hand in finishing chances.
However, both teams to score stands at 47%, indicating a reasonable chance for Puebla to find the net. Recent form shows Puebla with two wins in their last six matches, while Leon has a mixed record with three wins in their last six. The confidence grade is C, meaning there is some uncertainty in the predictions, influenced by market odds.
Puebla vs Leon: model vs market
| Source | Puebla | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 30% | 45% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leon below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Puebla vs Leon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leon, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 2.88 | 2.88 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.27 | -0.03 |
| Leon | 2.32 | 2.32 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Puebla and Leon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Puebla / Leon)
- 0.78 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Puebla / Leon)
- 1.09 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puebla vs Leon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puebla goals. Columns: Leon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puebla vs Leon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puebla vs Leon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puebla | 30% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Leon | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puebla or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Leon) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win by 2+ | 22% | 4.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puebla and Leon recent form
Puebla
2W 1D 3L
Leon
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puebla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puebla at home only, Leon away only.
Puebla vs Leon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Puebla 1 · draws 0 · Leon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Puebla | 0-1 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-09 | Leon | 1-2 | Puebla | Liga MX |
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