Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna: model vs market
| Source | Atletico San Luis | Draw | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | -6% | +1% | +5% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico San Luis, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | 1.92 | 1.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.62 | +0.00 |
| Santos Laguna | 3.54 | 3.54 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico San Luis and Santos Laguna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Atletico San Luis / Santos Laguna)
- 1.05 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Atletico San Luis / Santos Laguna)
- 1.27 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico San Luis goals. Columns: Santos Laguna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico San Luis | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Santos Laguna | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico San Luis or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Santos Laguna) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico San Luis win by 2+ | 22% | 4.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico San Luis and Santos Laguna recent form
Atletico San Luis
3W 1D 2L
Santos Laguna
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico San Luis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Santos Laguna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico San Luis at home only, Santos Laguna away only.
Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Atletico San Luis 2 · draws 0 · Santos Laguna 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Atletico San Luis | 2-0 | Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-21 | Santos Laguna | 1-4 | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
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