Club America vs Monterrey: model vs market
| Source | Club America | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | +14% | -7% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.52 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Club America below the model: +14.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Club America vs Monterrey odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Club America, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | 1.82 | 1.81 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.54 | -0.04 |
| Monterrey | 4.00 | 4.05 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club America and Monterrey expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.72
- Attack rating (Club America / Monterrey)
- 1.40 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Club America / Monterrey)
- 0.96 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club America vs Monterrey score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club America goals. Columns: Monterrey goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club America vs Monterrey goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club America vs Monterrey
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Monterrey | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club America or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Monterrey) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club America and Monterrey recent form
Club America
2W 2D 2L
Monterrey
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club America at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Monterrey away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club America at home only, Monterrey away only.
Club America vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Club America 4 · draws 4 · Monterrey 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Club America | 2-2 | Monterrey | Leagues Cup |
| 2026-02-08 | Club America | 1-0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-29 | Club America | 2-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-27 | Monterrey | 2-0 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-21 | Monterrey | 2-2 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2025-04-17 | Monterrey | 1-0 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2024-12-16 | Monterrey | 1-1 | Club America | Liga MX |
| 2024-12-13 | Club America | 2-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2024-10-28 | Club America | 2-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2024-02-04 | Club America | 1-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
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