Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas: model vs market
| Source | Atlas | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Published | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guadalajara Chivas, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 3.08 | 3.08 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.42 | -0.08 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 2.18 | 2.16 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.10
- Attack rating (Atlas / Guadalajara Chivas)
- 1.04 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Atlas / Guadalajara Chivas)
- 1.22 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlas goals. Columns: Guadalajara Chivas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 30% | 3.29 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlas or draw) | 57% | 1.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Guadalajara Chivas) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlas and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
Atlas
2W 2D 2L
Guadalajara Chivas
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlas at home only, Guadalajara Chivas away only.
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Atlas 0 · draws 0 · Guadalajara Chivas 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Atlas | 1-2 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-26 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4-1 | Atlas | Liga MX |
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