FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana: model vs market
| Source | FC Juarez | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Published | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Club Tijuana, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Juarez | 2.91 | 2.91 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Club Tijuana | 2.29 | 2.29 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Juarez and Club Tijuana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (FC Juarez / Club Tijuana)
- 0.78 / 0.94
- Defence rating (FC Juarez / Club Tijuana)
- 1.41 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Juarez goals. Columns: Club Tijuana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Juarez | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Club Tijuana | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Juarez or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Tijuana) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club Tijuana win by 2+ | 22% | 4.57 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
FC Juarez and Club Tijuana recent form
FC Juarez
1W 0D 5L
Club Tijuana
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Juarez at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Tijuana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Juarez at home only, Club Tijuana away only.
FC Juarez vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: FC Juarez 0 · draws 1 · Club Tijuana 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | FC Juarez | 1-2 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-21 | Club Tijuana | 3-1 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 2025-07-26 | Club Tijuana | 1-1 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
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