Tigres UANL vs Toluca preview
Tigres UANL takes on Toluca in Liga MX, with the market suggesting a 42% chance of a Toluca win compared to 31% for Tigres UANL. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 0.94 for Tigres UANL and 1.36 for Toluca.
Both teams to score has a probability of 47%, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 40%. Tigres UANL's recent form shows two wins and three draws, while Toluca has been stronger, winning five of their last six matches. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca: model vs market
| Source | Tigres UANL | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 30% | 45% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 41% |
| Published | 31% | 27% | 42% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toluca, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 2.71 | 2.83 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Toluca | 2.38 | 2.28 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tigres UANL and Toluca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Tigres UANL / Toluca)
- 0.68 / 1.46
- Defence rating (Tigres UANL / Toluca)
- 0.75 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tigres UANL goals. Columns: Toluca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tigres UANL vs Toluca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigres UANL | 31% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Toluca | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.15 |
| No | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tigres UANL or draw) | 58% | 1.72 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Toluca) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win by 2+ | 22% | 4.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Tigres UANL and Toluca recent form
Tigres UANL
2W 3D 1L
Toluca
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tigres UANL at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toluca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Tigres UANL at home only, Toluca away only.
Tigres UANL vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Tigres UANL 2 · draws 1 · Toluca 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Tigres UANL | 0-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-15 | Toluca | 2-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-12 | Tigres UANL | 1-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-07-27 | Toluca | 3-4 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
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