U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul: model vs market
| Source | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Published | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cruz Azul, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3.24 | 3.24 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.63 | 3.60 | -0.03 |
| Cruz Azul | 2.05 | 2.05 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (U.N.A.M. - Pumas / Cruz Azul)
- 0.82 / 1.15
- Defence rating (U.N.A.M. - Pumas / Cruz Azul)
- 1.12 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: U.N.A.M. - Pumas goals. Columns: Cruz Azul goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 30% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Cruz Azul | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruz Azul) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win by 2+ | 21% | 4.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Cruz Azul recent form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1W 2D 3L
Cruz Azul
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home only, Cruz Azul away only.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1 · draws 2 · Cruz Azul 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1-2 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2026-05-22 | Cruz Azul | 0-0 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 2026-03-15 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 2-2 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-09 | Cruz Azul | 2-3 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
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