CF Pachuca vs Necaxa Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	CF Pachuca	Draw	Necaxa
Model	66%	21%	13%
Market	56%	24%	20%
Published	58%	23%	18%
Edge	+10%	-3%	-8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.83.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices CF Pachuca below the model: +10.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on CF Pachuca, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.62Now 1.65 +0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
CF Pachuca	1.62	1.65	+0.03
Draw	3.94	3.90	-0.04
Necaxa	4.75	4.53	-0.22

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

CF Pachuca and Necaxa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13CF Pachuca

0.83Necaxa

Total expected goals: 2.96
Attack rating (CF Pachuca / Necaxa): 0.94 / 0.81
Defence rating (CF Pachuca / Necaxa): 0.83 / 1.36

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 3.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1 10.1% 10.1% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.7% 9.8% 4.1% 1.1% 0.3% 3 8.3% 6.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 4+ 7.3% 6.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: CF Pachuca goals. Columns: Necaxa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 51%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CF Pachuca vs Necaxa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	CF Pachuca	58%	1.71
	Draw	23%	4.34
	Necaxa	18%	5.42
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.76
	Under 2.5	43%	2.32
Both teams to score	Yes	51%	1.97
	No	49%	2.03
Double chance	1X (CF Pachuca or draw)	82%	1.23
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Necaxa)	42%	2.41
Handicap -1	CF Pachuca win by 2+	43%	2.32
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

CF Pachuca and Necaxa recent form

CF Pachuca 2W 3D 1L

Necaxa 0W 2D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

CF Pachuca at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-2-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Necaxa away

Record (W-D-L): 0-2-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: CF Pachuca at home only, Necaxa away only.

CF Pachuca vs Necaxa head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: CF Pachuca 2 · draws 0 · Necaxa 0.

100% 0% 0%

CF PachucaDrawsNecaxa

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-03-04	CF Pachuca	2-1	Necaxa	Liga MX
2025-10-04	Necaxa	0-1	CF Pachuca	Liga MX

Other Apertura - 11 fixtures

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FC Juarez v Club Tijuana — match page 2026-10-10
Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Club America vs Monterrey 2026-10-11
Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna — team news & stats 2026-10-11
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul 2026-10-12

Prediction snapshot CF Pachuca to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on CF Pachuca