Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas preview

In the Liga MX fixture between Atlante FC and U.N.A.M. - Pumas, the model gives Atlante FC a 47% chance to win, while U.N.A.M. - Pumas has a 26% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. The model also indicates a 51% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score.

Atlante FC's expected goals stand at 1.59 compared to U.N.A.M. - Pumas' 1.13. Recent form shows Atlante FC with a record of W-D-L-D-D-L, while U.N.A.M. - Pumas has L-D-L-W-L-D. A draw could change the expected outcome, as the model gives it a 27% probability.

Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atlante FC	Draw	U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Model	47%	27%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	47%	27%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.13.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Atlante FC and U.N.A.M. - Pumas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.59Atlante FC

1.13U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Total expected goals: 2.72
Attack rating (Atlante FC / U.N.A.M. - Pumas): 0.85 / 0.82
Defence rating (Atlante FC / U.N.A.M. - Pumas): 1.10 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.8% 6.3% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 1 9.3% 13.0% 6.7% 2.5% 0.9% 2 8.4% 9.4% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 3 4.4% 5.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.5% 2.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Atlante FC goals. Columns: U.N.A.M. - Pumas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atlante FC	47%	2.13
	Draw	27%	3.66
	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	26%	3.88
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.96
	Under 2.5	49%	2.04
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.82
	No	45%	2.22
Double chance	1X (Atlante FC or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	73%	1.38
	X2 (draw or U.N.A.M. - Pumas)	53%	1.88
Handicap -1	Atlante FC win by 2+	25%	4.02
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer

18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.

Atlante FC and U.N.A.M. - Pumas recent form

Atlante FC 1W 3D 2L

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atlante FC at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-3-1
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.20
Goals against / match: 1.40
Clean sheets: 1 of 5

They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas away

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-2
Win rate: 40%
Goals for / match: 1.60
Goals against / match: 1.60
Clean sheets: 0 of 5

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atlante FC at home only, U.N.A.M. - Pumas away only.

Other Apertura - 12 fixtures

Necaxa v Atlas — match page 2026-10-17
Club Tijuana vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-10-17

Before and after this match

Atlante FC, previous: Club Queretaro vs Atlante FC prediction
U.N.A.M. - Pumas, previous: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul prediction

Prediction snapshot Atlante FC to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Atlante FC