Necaxa vs Atlas preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Necaxa and Atlas, the 1X2 probabilities show Atlas at 40% to win, while Necaxa is at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Necaxa recording three losses and two draws in their last five matches, while Atlas has two wins, two draws, and a loss in the same period.
The model suggests a high chance for Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 67%. However, if Necaxa manages to improve their performance, it could lead to a different outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Necaxa vs Atlas: model vs market
| Source | Necaxa | Draw | Atlas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Necaxa and Atlas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Necaxa / Atlas)
- 0.81 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Necaxa / Atlas)
- 1.36 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Necaxa vs Atlas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Necaxa goals. Columns: Atlas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Necaxa vs Atlas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Necaxa vs Atlas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Atlas | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Necaxa or draw) | 60% | 1.67 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlas) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlas win by 2+ | 22% | 4.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Necaxa and Atlas recent form
Necaxa
0W 2D 4L
Atlas
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Necaxa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-1
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Necaxa at home only, Atlas away only.
Necaxa vs Atlas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Necaxa 0 · draws 0 · Atlas 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Necaxa | 0-1 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-27 | Atlas | 3-2 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Club Tijuana vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Necaxa, previous: CF Pachuca v Necaxa analysis
- Atlas, previous: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction