Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL, the 1X2 probabilities show Guadalajara Chivas at 50%, while Tigres UANL sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. Guadalajara Chivas has an expected goals figure of 1.45 compared to Tigres UANL's 0.79, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, both teams to score stands at 43%, suggesting that Tigres UANL could find the net. Recent form also plays a role, with Guadalajara Chivas recording D-L-D-W-W-D and Tigres UANL showing W-W-L-D-D-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting uncertainty in the outcome.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL: model vs market
| Source | Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Market | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | -1% | +4% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.80.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guadalajara Chivas, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.84 | 1.79 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.70 | +0.15 |
| Tigres UANL | 3.88 | 4.00 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.24
- Attack rating (Guadalajara Chivas / Tigres UANL)
- 1.06 / 0.79
- Defence rating (Guadalajara Chivas / Tigres UANL)
- 0.80 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guadalajara Chivas goals. Columns: Tigres UANL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Tigres UANL | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guadalajara Chivas or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Tigres UANL) | 48% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win by 2+ | 26% | 3.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Guadalajara Chivas and Tigres UANL recent form
Guadalajara Chivas
2W 3D 1L
Tigres UANL
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guadalajara Chivas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigres UANL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guadalajara Chivas at home only, Tigres UANL away only.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Guadalajara Chivas 1 · draws 4 · Tigres UANL 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Guadalajara Chivas | 2-0 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2026-05-03 | Tigres UANL | 3-1 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2026-04-11 | Tigres UANL | 4-1 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-18 | Guadalajara Chivas | 0-0 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2025-01-26 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2024-08-25 | Tigres UANL | 1-1 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2024-01-22 | Tigres UANL | 1-0 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2023-10-29 | Guadalajara Chivas | 0-4 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2023-05-29 | Guadalajara Chivas | 2-3 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2023-05-26 | Tigres UANL | 0-0 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Necaxa v Atlas — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-17
- Club Tijuana vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-17
- Toluca vs Atletico San Luis 2026-10-18
- Leon v Club America — match page 2026-10-18
- Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monterrey vs CF Pachuca 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Guadalajara Chivas, previous: Atlas vs Guadalajara Chivas prediction
- Guadalajara Chivas, next: Guadalajara Chivas – Necaxa, 2026-10-21
- Tigres UANL, previous: Tigres UANL v Toluca analysis
- Tigres UANL, next: Tigres UANL vs Leon prediction