Monterrey vs CF Pachuca preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Monterrey and CF Pachuca, the 1X2 probabilities show Monterrey at 40%, CF Pachuca at 33%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Our model indicates a 55% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
Monterrey's expected goals stand at 1.54, while CF Pachuca's is slightly lower at 1.36. Recent form shows Monterrey with a mixed record of D-L-W-D-L-D, and CF Pachuca with D-L-D-W-W-D. The head-to-head record shows CF Pachuca winning both of the last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca: model vs market
| Source | Monterrey | Draw | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | -15% | +3% | +12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monterrey, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 1.81 | 1.66 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.92 | +0.15 |
| CF Pachuca | 3.80 | 4.39 | +0.59 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monterrey and CF Pachuca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Monterrey / CF Pachuca)
- 0.96 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Monterrey / CF Pachuca)
- 1.04 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monterrey goals. Columns: CF Pachuca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monterrey vs CF Pachuca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| CF Pachuca | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monterrey or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or CF Pachuca) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win by 2+ | 20% | 4.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Monterrey and CF Pachuca recent form
Monterrey
1W 3D 2L
CF Pachuca
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monterrey at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Pachuca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monterrey at home only, CF Pachuca away only.
Monterrey vs CF Pachuca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Monterrey 0 · draws 0 · CF Pachuca 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Monterrey | 1-3 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 2025-07-13 | CF Pachuca | 3-0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Necaxa v Atlas — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-17
- Club Tijuana vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-17
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Toluca vs Atletico San Luis 2026-10-18
- Leon v Club America — match page 2026-10-18
- Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Monterrey, previous: Club America – Monterrey, 2026-10-11
- Monterrey, next: Puebla vs Monterrey prediction
- CF Pachuca, previous: CF Pachuca v Necaxa analysis
- CF Pachuca, next: CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul analysis