Updated

Liga MX · Apertura - 12

Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro

· Estadio TSM Corona, Torreon· Referee Mario Terrazas Chavez

Alin prediction Santos Laguna to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Santos LagunaDrawClub Queretaro
Best market odds
Santos Laguna2.42 Draw3.79 Club Queretaro3.40

Price as of

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro preview

In the Liga MX fixture between Santos Laguna and Club Queretaro, the 1X2 probabilities show Santos Laguna at 38%, Club Queretaro at 34%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 11%. Santos Laguna's expected goals stand at 1.07, while Club Queretaro's is slightly lower at 1.06.

Both teams have shown strong recent form, with Santos Laguna recording 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Club Queretaro has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. The model suggests a 36% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating potential uncertainty in the outcome.

Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSantos LagunaDrawClub Queretaro
Model34%32%34%
Market45%26%30%
Published42%27%31%
Edge-11%+7%+4%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Santos Laguna, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.39Now 2.08 -0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Santos Laguna2.392.08-0.31
Draw3.503.61+0.11
Club Queretaro2.693.11+0.42

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Santos Laguna and Club Queretaro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.07Santos Laguna
1.07Club Queretaro
Total expected goals
2.13
Attack rating (Santos Laguna / Club Queretaro)
0.92 / 0.95
Defence rating (Santos Laguna / Club Queretaro)
0.89 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.2% 11.3% 6.7% 2.4% 0.8% 1 11.3% 14.8% 7.2% 2.5% 0.9% 2 6.8% 7.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Santos Laguna goals. Columns: Club Queretaro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%
Over 1.5 64%
Over 2.5 36%
Over 3.5 17%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Santos Laguna42%2.39
Draw27%3.66
Club Queretaro31%3.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536%2.78
Under 2.564%1.56
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.25
No56%1.80
Double chance1X (Santos Laguna or draw)69%1.44
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Club Queretaro)58%1.72
Handicap -1Santos Laguna win by 2+14%7.20
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Santos Laguna and Club Queretaro recent form

Santos Laguna 4W 1D 1L
Club Queretaro 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Santos Laguna at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
0.60
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Club Queretaro away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.40
Clean sheets
3 of 5
  • They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Santos Laguna at home only, Club Queretaro away only.

Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Santos Laguna 3 · draws 3 · Club Queretaro 4.

Santos LagunaDrawsClub Queretaro
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-28Club Queretaro2-2Santos LagunaLiga MX
2025-10-26Santos Laguna3-1Club QueretaroLiga MX
2025-04-13Santos Laguna1-2Club QueretaroLiga MX
2024-11-09Club Queretaro3-2Santos LagunaLiga MX
2024-03-02Club Queretaro0-1Santos LagunaLiga MX
2023-07-03Santos Laguna0-2Club QueretaroLiga MX
2023-04-24Santos Laguna0-2Club QueretaroLiga MX
2022-09-10Club Queretaro3-3Santos LagunaLiga MX
2022-04-17Santos Laguna1-1Club QueretaroLiga MX
2021-10-30Club Queretaro2-3Santos LagunaLiga MX

Other Apertura - 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Santos Laguna to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Santos Laguna
Our pick: Santos Laguna to win 18+ Bet Now