Toluca vs Atletico San Luis preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Toluca and Atletico San Luis, the 1X2 probabilities show Toluca at 74% to win, while Atletico San Luis sits at just 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 3-1, with an 8% chance. Toluca's expected goals are 3.08, significantly higher than Atletico San Luis's 1.23, indicating a strong attacking performance from Toluca.
However, there are factors that could challenge this forecast. Atletico San Luis recently won 2 of their last 3 matches, which could boost their confidence. Additionally, while 80% of matches are expected to have Over 2.5 goals, there's a 32% chance that the total goals could be 2 or fewer, which would affect the outcome.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis: model vs market
| Source | Toluca | Draw | Atletico San Luis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 12% |
| Published | 72% | 17% | 12% |
| Edge | +5% | -3% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.13 vs 1.19.
- The market prices Toluca below the model: +4.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toluca, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.31 | 1.31 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.35 | 5.30 | -0.05 |
| Atletico San Luis | 7.74 | 7.78 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Toluca and Atletico San Luis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.32
- Attack rating (Toluca / Atletico San Luis)
- 1.45 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Toluca / Atletico San Luis)
- 0.94 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toluca goals. Columns: Atletico San Luis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toluca vs Atletico San Luis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.98 | |
| Atletico San Luis | 12% | 8.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.49 |
| No | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toluca or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico San Luis) | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win by 2+ | 57% | 1.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Toluca and Atletico San Luis recent form
Toluca
3W 1D 2L
Atletico San Luis
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toluca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Atletico San Luis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Toluca at home only, Atletico San Luis away only.
Toluca vs Atletico San Luis head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Toluca 7 · draws 1 · Atletico San Luis 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Toluca | 1-1 | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| 2025-08-30 | Atletico San Luis | 1-3 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-04-17 | Atletico San Luis | 0-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2024-08-25 | Toluca | 2-1 | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| 2024-04-20 | Atletico San Luis | 1-5 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2023-10-29 | Toluca | 3-1 | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| 2023-02-26 | Toluca | 2-0 | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| 2022-08-21 | Atletico San Luis | 1-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2022-02-12 | Atletico San Luis | 0-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2021-09-26 | Toluca | 1-2 | Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 12 fixtures
- Necaxa v Atlas — match page 2026-10-17
- Atlante FC vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-17
- Club Tijuana vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-17
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Leon v Club America — match page 2026-10-18
- Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monterrey vs CF Pachuca 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Toluca, previous: Tigres UANL v Toluca analysis
- Toluca, next: Toluca v Club Tijuana analysis
- Atletico San Luis, previous: Atletico San Luis vs Santos Laguna: odds and pick
- Atletico San Luis, next: Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro: odds and pick