Toluca vs Club Tijuana preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Toluca and Club Tijuana, Toluca has a 69% probability to win, while Club Tijuana sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Toluca's expected goals are 2.58 compared to Club Tijuana's 1.08, suggesting a strong offensive performance from Toluca.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score has a 62% probability, indicating that Club Tijuana may find the net. Additionally, Toluca's recent form shows some inconsistency with two losses in their last three matches. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
Toluca vs Club Tijuana: model vs market
| Source | Toluca | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Toluca and Club Tijuana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.31
- Attack rating (Toluca / Club Tijuana)
- 1.45 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Toluca / Club Tijuana)
- 0.94 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toluca vs Club Tijuana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toluca goals. Columns: Club Tijuana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toluca vs Club Tijuana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toluca vs Club Tijuana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Club Tijuana | 13% | 7.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toluca or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Tijuana) | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win by 2+ | 46% | 2.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Toluca and Club Tijuana recent form
Toluca
3W 1D 2L
Club Tijuana
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toluca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Club Tijuana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Toluca at home only, Club Tijuana away only.
Toluca vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Toluca 1 · draws 1 · Club Tijuana 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Toluca | 1-0 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-23 | Club Tijuana | 0-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa — match page 2026-10-21
- FC Juarez v Atlante FC — match page 2026-10-21
- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Tigres UANL vs Leon 2026-10-21
- Atlas vs Club America 2026-10-22
- Puebla v Monterrey — match page 2026-10-22
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Toluca, previous: Toluca v Atletico San Luis analysis
- Club Tijuana, previous: Club Tijuana v Puebla analysis