Tigres UANL vs Leon preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Tigres UANL and Leon, the 1X2 probabilities show Tigres UANL at 32%, draw at 34%, and Leon at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. Tigres UANL's expected goals stand at 0.96, while Leon's is slightly higher at 1.02.
Tigres UANL's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 draws, while Leon has 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. With both teams to score at 41% and Over 2.5 goals at 32%, there is potential for a low-scoring match. However, if Tigres UANL can improve their attacking output, they may challenge Leon's slight edge in expected goals.
Tigres UANL vs Leon: model vs market
| Source | Tigres UANL | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 34% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 34% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tigres UANL and Leon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.99
- Attack rating (Tigres UANL / Leon)
- 0.79 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Tigres UANL / Leon)
- 0.82 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tigres UANL vs Leon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tigres UANL goals. Columns: Leon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tigres UANL vs Leon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tigres UANL vs Leon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigres UANL | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Leon | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.44 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tigres UANL or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Leon) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leon win by 2+ | 14% | 7.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tigres UANL and Leon recent form
Tigres UANL
2W 3D 1L
Leon
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tigres UANL at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tigres UANL at home only, Leon away only.
Tigres UANL vs Leon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tigres UANL 1 · draws 1 · Leon 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Leon | 1-2 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-14 | Tigres UANL | 0-0 | Leon | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 13 fixtures
- Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa — match page 2026-10-21
- FC Juarez v Atlante FC — match page 2026-10-21
- Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro — team news & stats 2026-10-21
- Toluca vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- Atlas vs Club America 2026-10-22
- Puebla v Monterrey — match page 2026-10-22
- Santos Laguna vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas — team news & stats 2026-10-22
- CF Pachuca vs Cruz Azul 2026-10-22
Before and after this match
- Tigres UANL, previous: Guadalajara Chivas – Tigres UANL, 2026-10-17
- Leon, previous: Leon vs Club America: odds and pick