Necaxa vs FC Juarez preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Necaxa and FC Juarez, the 1X2 probabilities show Necaxa at 49%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 (9%). The model also indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 63%.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Necaxa has recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses in their last 7 matches, while FC Juarez has 1 win, 1 draw, and 5 losses in the same period. This uneven performance could lead to a different result than expected, especially given the confidence grade of C.
Necaxa vs FC Juarez: model vs market
| Source | Necaxa | Draw | FC Juarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.34.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Necaxa and FC Juarez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.20
- Attack rating (Necaxa / FC Juarez)
- 0.86 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Necaxa / FC Juarez)
- 1.40 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Necaxa vs FC Juarez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Necaxa goals. Columns: FC Juarez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Necaxa vs FC Juarez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Necaxa vs FC Juarez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Necaxa | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| FC Juarez | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Necaxa or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Juarez) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Necaxa win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Necaxa and FC Juarez recent form
Necaxa
0W 2D 4L
FC Juarez
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Necaxa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Juarez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Necaxa at home only, FC Juarez away only.
Necaxa vs FC Juarez head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Necaxa 1 · draws 1 · FC Juarez 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | FC Juarez | 1-2 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-13 | Necaxa | 1-1 | FC Juarez | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Necaxa, previous: Guadalajara Chivas – Necaxa, 2026-10-21
- FC Juarez, previous: FC Juarez v Atlante FC analysis