U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL preview
In the Liga MX fixture on 2026-10-25, U.N.A.M. - Pumas has a 34% chance of winning, while Tigres UANL stands at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 9% probability. U.N.A.M. - Pumas has struggled recently, with a form of L-W-D-L-D-L, compared to Tigres UANL's L-D-W-W-L-D.
The expected goals show U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 1.27 and Tigres UANL at 1.08. There’s a 42% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance for both teams to score. These statistics suggest a close match, but U.N.A.M. - Pumas' recent form could lead to an unexpected outcome.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL: model vs market
| Source | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Draw | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| Published | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.59, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Tigres UANL, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 2.96 | 2.70 | -0.26 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.40 | +0.02 |
| Tigres UANL | 2.25 | 2.43 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Tigres UANL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.35
- Attack rating (U.N.A.M. - Pumas / Tigres UANL)
- 0.92 / 0.73
- Defence rating (U.N.A.M. - Pumas / Tigres UANL)
- 1.17 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: U.N.A.M. - Pumas goals. Columns: Tigres UANL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Tigres UANL | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Tigres UANL) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tigres UANL win by 2+ | 12% | 8.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Tigres UANL recent form
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1W 2D 3L
Tigres UANL
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigres UANL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home only, Tigres UANL away only.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2 · draws 4 · Tigres UANL 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | Tigres UANL | 0-1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-21 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2025-04-20 | Tigres UANL | 2-1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 2024-09-01 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1-3 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2024-02-04 | Tigres UANL | 2-2 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 2023-12-11 | Tigres UANL | 1-1 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 2023-12-08 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 0-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2023-08-28 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 2-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2023-02-12 | Tigres UANL | 4-2 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 2022-08-25 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Necaxa v FC Juarez — match page 2026-10-24
- Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Leon vs Toluca 2026-10-24
- Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas — match page 2026-10-25
- Atlas vs Puebla 2026-10-25
- Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul — team news & stats 2026-10-26
- Club America v CF Pachuca — match page 2026-10-26
- Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas, previous: Santos Laguna – U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 2026-10-22
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas, next: Puebla v U.N.A.M. - Pumas analysis
- Tigres UANL, previous: Tigres UANL vs Leon prediction