Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas, the 1X2 probabilities show Monterrey at 38%, a draw at 28%, and Guadalajara Chivas at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance according to our model. The expected goals are 1.35 for Monterrey and 1.26 for Guadalajara Chivas, indicating a closely matched contest.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Monterrey recording W-W-D-L-W-D and Guadalajara Chivas at W-D-D-L-D-W. The chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at 48%, while both teams to score stands at 54%. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas: model vs market
| Source | Monterrey | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monterrey, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 2.53 | 2.40 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.35 | -0.05 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 2.55 | 2.90 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Monterrey / Guadalajara Chivas)
- 1.16 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Monterrey / Guadalajara Chivas)
- 0.98 / 0.70
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monterrey goals. Columns: Guadalajara Chivas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monterrey or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Guadalajara Chivas) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win by 2+ | 18% | 5.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Monterrey and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
Monterrey
3W 2D 1L
Guadalajara Chivas
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monterrey at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guadalajara Chivas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Monterrey at home only, Guadalajara Chivas away only.
Monterrey vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Monterrey 3 · draws 2 · Guadalajara Chivas 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Monterrey | 2-3 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-08 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-04-06 | Monterrey | 3-1 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2024-09-29 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2024-03-31 | Monterrey | 0-2 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2023-09-03 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2023-01-08 | Monterrey | 0-1 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| 2022-08-24 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1-0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2022-04-14 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1-3 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2021-08-22 | Monterrey | 0-0 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
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Before and after this match
- Monterrey, previous: Puebla vs Monterrey prediction
- Guadalajara Chivas, previous: Guadalajara Chivas – Necaxa, 2026-10-21