Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul, the 1X2 probabilities show Cruz Azul at 42% to win, while Club Queretaro stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score has a 66% probability, and Over 2.5 goals is at 64%.
Cruz Azul's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Club Queretaro has 4 wins in their last 6 as well. However, the head-to-head record shows Club Queretaro has not won against Cruz Azul in their last 2 meetings, which could influence the outcome. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul: model vs market
| Source | Club Queretaro | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Published | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.44.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cruz Azul, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 3.25 | 3.50 | +0.25 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.70 | +0.15 |
| Cruz Azul | 2.05 | 1.95 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Club Queretaro / Cruz Azul)
- 0.84 / 1.42
- Defence rating (Club Queretaro / Cruz Azul)
- 1.01 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Queretaro goals. Columns: Cruz Azul goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Queretaro | 28% | 3.64 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Cruz Azul | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.54 |
| No | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Queretaro or draw) | 53% | 1.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruz Azul) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club Queretaro and Cruz Azul recent form
Club Queretaro
3W 1D 2L
Cruz Azul
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Queretaro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Queretaro at home only, Cruz Azul away only.
Club Queretaro vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Club Queretaro 0 · draws 2 · Cruz Azul 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Club Queretaro | 1-1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-25 | Cruz Azul | 2-2 | Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 14 fixtures
- Necaxa v FC Juarez — match page 2026-10-24
- Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Leon vs Toluca 2026-10-24
- Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas — match page 2026-10-25
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Atlas vs Puebla 2026-10-25
- Club America v CF Pachuca — match page 2026-10-26
- Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna 2026-10-26
Before and after this match
- Club Queretaro, previous: Atletico San Luis vs Club Queretaro: odds and pick
- Club Queretaro, next: FC Juarez vs Club Queretaro prediction
- Cruz Azul, previous: CF Pachuca v Cruz Azul analysis