Club Queretaro vs Monterrey preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Club Queretaro and Monterrey, the 1X2 probabilities show Monterrey at 45%, while Club Queretaro sits at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Monterrey has a stronger recent form with two wins in their last five matches compared to Queretaro's five consecutive losses.
The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 62%. However, if Club Queretaro can improve their performance and find the net, they could challenge Monterrey's dominance. The expected goals for Club Queretaro are 1.46, while Monterrey's are slightly higher at 1.58.
Club Queretaro vs Monterrey: model vs market
| Source | Club Queretaro | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Market | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 12 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Club Queretaro vs Monterrey odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monterrey, 39 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Queretaro | 3.17 | 3.48 | +0.31 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.50 | -0.12 |
| Monterrey | 2.11 | 2.02 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Club Queretaro and Monterrey expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Club Queretaro / Monterrey)
- 0.72 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Club Queretaro / Monterrey)
- 1.21 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club Queretaro vs Monterrey score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club Queretaro goals. Columns: Monterrey goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club Queretaro vs Monterrey goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club Queretaro vs Monterrey
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club Queretaro | 29% | 3.48 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Monterrey | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club Queretaro or draw) | 55% | 1.81 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Monterrey) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win by 2+ | 20% | 4.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club Queretaro and Monterrey recent form
Club Queretaro
1W 0D 5L
Monterrey
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club Queretaro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterrey away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-4
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Club Queretaro at home only, Monterrey away only.
Club Queretaro vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Club Queretaro 1 · draws 3 · Monterrey 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | Monterrey | 4-0 | Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-14 | Club Queretaro | 0-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-02-16 | Club Queretaro | 2-4 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2024-07-21 | Monterrey | 2-1 | Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 2024-01-25 | Monterrey | 1-1 | Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 2023-11-11 | Club Queretaro | 0-0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2023-02-16 | Monterrey | 2-0 | Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 2022-07-22 | Club Queretaro | 0-3 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2022-01-09 | Monterrey | 0-0 | Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 2021-10-19 | Club Queretaro | 1-0 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
Before and after this match
- Club Queretaro, previous: Club Queretaro vs Puebla prediction
- Monterrey, previous: Toluca v Monterrey analysis