Toluca vs Monterrey preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Toluca and Monterrey, the 1X2 probabilities show Toluca at 55% to win, while Monterrey sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Toluca's expected goals are 2.22, compared to Monterrey's 1.45, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Toluca recording four draws and a loss in their last six matches. Monterrey has two wins, but also two losses in the same period. The model predicts a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 69%. However, if Monterrey improves their form, they could disrupt Toluca's expected dominance.
Toluca vs Monterrey: model vs market
| Source | Toluca | Draw | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 57% | 22% | 21% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.46.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Toluca vs Monterrey odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toluca, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.67 | 1.60 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.33 | +0.18 |
| Monterrey | 4.10 | 4.69 | +0.59 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Toluca and Monterrey expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.68
- Attack rating (Toluca / Monterrey)
- 1.27 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Toluca / Monterrey)
- 1.00 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toluca vs Monterrey score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toluca goals. Columns: Monterrey goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toluca vs Monterrey goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toluca vs Monterrey
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toluca | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Monterrey | 21% | 4.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toluca or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Monterrey) | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toluca win by 2+ | 34% | 2.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Toluca and Monterrey recent form
Toluca
0W 5D 1L
Monterrey
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toluca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Monterrey away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Toluca at home only, Monterrey away only.
Toluca vs Monterrey head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Toluca 6 · draws 1 · Monterrey 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Monterrey | 2-1 | Toluca | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2026-09-07 | Toluca | 2-0 | Monterrey | Leagues Cup |
| 2026-01-11 | Monterrey | 0-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-07 | Toluca | 3-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-04 | Monterrey | 1-0 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-09-25 | Toluca | 6-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-05-11 | Toluca | 2-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2025-05-08 | Monterrey | 3-2 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-01-19 | Toluca | 1-1 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
| 2024-09-01 | Monterrey | 1-2 | Toluca | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
- Necaxa v Club Tijuana — match page 2026-11-07
- Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna 2026-11-07
- Atlas vs CF Pachuca — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul — match page 2026-11-08
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America — match page 2026-11-08
- Club Queretaro vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-11-09
- Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Toluca, previous: Club America v Toluca analysis
- Monterrey, previous: Monterrey vs Club Tijuana prediction