Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Leon and Guadalajara Chivas, the 1X2 probabilities show Guadalajara Chivas at 43%, Leon at 30%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Guadalajara Chivas has shown strong recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Leon has 2 wins in the same period. The expected goals are Leon 1.24 and Guadalajara Chivas 1.40, indicating a slight edge for the visitors. Over 2.5 goals is at 49%, and both teams to score is at 55%, suggesting a competitive match. However, unexpected performances from either team could change the outcome.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas: model vs market
| Source | Leon | Draw | Guadalajara Chivas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 30% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guadalajara Chivas, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 2.10 | 2.13 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leon and Guadalajara Chivas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Leon / Guadalajara Chivas)
- 1.02 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Leon / Guadalajara Chivas)
- 0.95 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leon goals. Columns: Guadalajara Chivas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leon | 30% | 3.28 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leon or draw) | 58% | 1.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Guadalajara Chivas) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leon and Guadalajara Chivas recent form
Leon
2W 2D 2L
Guadalajara Chivas
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Guadalajara Chivas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-0
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leon at home only, Guadalajara Chivas away only.
Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Leon 1 · draws 0 · Guadalajara Chivas 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5-0 | Leon | Liga MX |
| 2025-07-20 | Leon | 1-0 | Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
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- Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna 2026-11-07
- Atlas vs CF Pachuca — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul — match page 2026-11-08
- Toluca vs Monterrey 2026-11-08
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America — match page 2026-11-08
- Club Queretaro vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Leon, previous: Cruz Azul vs Leon prediction
- Guadalajara Chivas, previous: Guadalajara Chivas – Atlante FC, 2026-11-01