Updated

Liga MX · Apertura - 16

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna

· Estadio Banorte, Mexico City· Referee Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Atlante FC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atlante FCDrawSantos Laguna

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtlante FCDrawSantos Laguna
Model23%27%50%
Market43%26%31%
Published38%26%36%
Edge-5%0%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atlante FC, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.04Now 2.15 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atlante FC2.042.15+0.10
Draw3.663.60-0.06
Santos Laguna3.153.00-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atlante FC and Santos Laguna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.02Atlante FC
1.62Santos Laguna
Total expected goals
2.64
Attack rating (Atlante FC / Santos Laguna)
0.75 / 1.10
Defence rating (Atlante FC / Santos Laguna)
1.16 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.3% 10.4% 9.4% 5.1% 3.0% 1 6.1% 13.0% 9.6% 5.2% 3.0% 2 3.7% 6.0% 4.9% 2.6% 1.5% 3 1.3% 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Atlante FC goals. Columns: Santos Laguna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atlante FC38%2.62
Draw26%3.83
Santos Laguna36%2.80
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.04
Under 2.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.91
No48%2.10
Double chance1X (Atlante FC or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Santos Laguna)62%1.62
Handicap -1Atlante FC win by 2+9%11.60
Push (exactly one goal)14%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atlante FC and Santos Laguna recent form

Atlante FC 2W 0D 4L
Santos Laguna 5W 0D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atlante FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-3
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 3 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 5 penalties (40%).

Santos Laguna away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-5
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
2.43
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Atlante FC at home only, Santos Laguna away only.

Expected lineups

Atlante FC lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Ó. Jiménez
  2. 37 W. Clar
  3. 44 A. Quiroz
  4. 3 G. Sánchez
  5. 6 J. N. Carrera
  6. 29 Walter Portales
  7. 19 L. Calzadilla
  8. 8 E. Pizzuto
  9. 30 M. Sarrafiore
  10. 7 J. Julio
  11. 11 Joaquin Alejandro Moxica Chapa

Bench: L. Puente, O. Vazquez, M. García, C. Alfaro, Jairón Andrés Charcopa Cabezas, José González, G. Adame, M. Fernández, D. Bagüí, Jordan García

Santos Laguna lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 1 C. Acevedo
  2. 17 E. Echeverría
  3. 28 Jonathan Pérez
  4. 25 Felipe Sánchez
  5. 18 F. Pardo
  6. 3 M. Cuevas
  7. 10 E. Bullaude
  8. 23 F. Cáseres
  9. 21 Fran Villalba
  10. 19 E. Aguirre
  11. 20 E. Lozano

Bench: J. Abella, A. López, J. Güémez, S. Mariscal, L. Di Yorio, R. Sordo, Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez, H. Holguín, K. Palacios, Luis Gómez

Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Atlante FC 1 · draws 0 · Santos Laguna 0.

Atlante FCDrawsSantos Laguna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-19Santos Laguna0-3Atlante FCFriendlies Clubs

Other Apertura - 16 fixtures

Before and after this match