Updated

Liga MX · Apertura - 16

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

· Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes· Referee Adonai Escobedo Gonzalez

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Club Tijuana to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NecaxaDrawClub Tijuana

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNecaxaDrawClub Tijuana
Model28%26%46%
Market39%27%35%
Published36%26%38%
Edge-3%0%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Club Tijuana below our published probability: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Club Tijuana, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 2.89Now 2.68 -0.21
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Necaxa2.182.40+0.22
Draw3.673.50-0.17
Club Tijuana2.892.68-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Necaxa and Club Tijuana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Necaxa
1.70Club Tijuana
Total expected goals
2.98
Attack rating (Necaxa / Club Tijuana)
0.69 / 1.12
Defence rating (Necaxa / Club Tijuana)
1.19 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 7.5% 7.4% 4.2% 2.6% 1 5.4% 12.1% 9.4% 5.3% 3.3% 2 4.1% 7.1% 6.0% 3.4% 2.1% 3 1.8% 3.0% 2.6% 1.5% 0.9% 4+ 0.7% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Necaxa goals. Columns: Club Tijuana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Necaxa vs Club Tijuana

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Necaxa36%2.78
Draw26%3.78
Club Tijuana38%2.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.75
Under 2.543%2.34
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.66
No40%2.51
Double chance1X (Necaxa or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Club Tijuana)64%1.56
Handicap -1Club Tijuana win by 2+25%3.96
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Necaxa and Club Tijuana recent form

Necaxa 0W 2D 4L
Club Tijuana 1W 5D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Necaxa at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-5
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.12
Goals against / match
1.88
Clean sheets
0 of 8
  • They have won 2 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Club Tijuana away

Record (W-D-L)
0-6-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Necaxa at home only, Club Tijuana away only.

Expected lineups

Necaxa lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 14 M. Zaleta
  2. 3 A. Oliveros
  3. 5 Kaiky Naves
  4. 33 R. Martínez
  5. 15 D. Ochoa
  6. 13 Owen de Jesús González Ojeda
  7. 6 D. Leyva
  8. 8 L. Faravelli
  9. 99 M. Rodríguez
  10. 9 J. Carranza

Bench: C. Andrade, A. Peña, J. Torres, P. Pedraza, M. Espíndola, C. Vargas, J. Valencia

Club Tijuana lineup · 5-4-1

  1. 2 A. Rodríguez
  2. 33 P. Ortíz
  3. 6 A. Gómez
  4. 8 I. Tona
  5. 12 J. Porozo
  6. 3 R. Fernández
  7. 7 Adonis Preciado
  8. 10 G. Mora
  9. 15 I. Rivero
  10. 11 F. González
  11. 9 Mourad

Bench: Unai Bilbao, Elias Manoel, J. Vega, R. Árciga, D. Abreu, Á. Zapata, S. Hernández, Y. Padilla, F. Boya, J. González

Necaxa vs Club Tijuana head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Necaxa 3 · draws 4 · Club Tijuana 3.

NecaxaDrawsClub Tijuana
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Necaxa3-0Club TijuanaLiga MX
2025-09-01Club Tijuana3-0NecaxaLiga MX
2025-04-05Club Tijuana1-2NecaxaLiga MX
2024-10-19Necaxa1-2Club TijuanaLiga MX
2024-04-06Club Tijuana2-3NecaxaLiga MX
2024-01-06Necaxa1-3Club TijuanaFriendlies Clubs
2023-07-08Necaxa1-1Club TijuanaLiga MX
2023-02-04Necaxa1-1Club TijuanaLiga MX
2022-09-19Club Tijuana1-1NecaxaLiga MX
2022-02-19Club Tijuana1-1NecaxaLiga MX

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