Atlas vs CF Pachuca preview
In the Liga MX match between Atlas and CF Pachuca, the 1X2 probabilities show Atlas at 41% and CF Pachuca at 33%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, with a confidence grade of C. Atlas has a recent form of W-W-L-W-D-W, while CF Pachuca has W-W-L-L-D-L.
The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams to score at 70%. However, Atlas has not won against CF Pachuca in their last two meetings, which could affect their performance. The expected goals are close, with Atlas at 1.82 and CF Pachuca at 1.75, suggesting a competitive match.
Atlas vs CF Pachuca: model vs market
| Source | Atlas | Draw | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | 39% | 27% | 33% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 34% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atlas vs CF Pachuca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atlas, 13 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 2.25 | 2.34 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.40 | -0.10 |
| CF Pachuca | 3.00 | 2.76 | -0.24 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atlas and CF Pachuca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Atlas / CF Pachuca)
- 1.19 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Atlas / CF Pachuca)
- 1.21 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlas vs CF Pachuca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlas goals. Columns: CF Pachuca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlas vs CF Pachuca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlas vs CF Pachuca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas | 39% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| CF Pachuca | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlas or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or CF Pachuca) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlas win by 2+ | 21% | 4.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atlas and CF Pachuca recent form
Atlas
4W 1D 1L
CF Pachuca
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.12
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
CF Pachuca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlas at home only, CF Pachuca away only.
Atlas vs CF Pachuca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atlas 3 · draws 1 · CF Pachuca 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | CF Pachuca | 3-1 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 2025-08-10 | Atlas | 0-3 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 2025-02-02 | CF Pachuca | 0-0 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 2024-09-14 | Atlas | 2-0 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 2024-02-01 | CF Pachuca | 4-3 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 2023-11-02 | Atlas | 0-2 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 2023-04-15 | Atlas | 4-1 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 2022-08-26 | CF Pachuca | 3-1 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 2022-05-30 | CF Pachuca | 2-1 | Atlas | Liga MX |
| 2022-05-27 | Atlas | 2-0 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
- Necaxa v Club Tijuana — match page 2026-11-07
- Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna 2026-11-07
- Tigres UANL v Cruz Azul — match page 2026-11-08
- Toluca vs Monterrey 2026-11-08
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America — match page 2026-11-08
- Club Queretaro vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-11-09
- Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Atlas, previous: Atletico San Luis – Atlas, 2026-10-31
- CF Pachuca, previous: CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL: odds and pick