CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL preview
In the Liga MX fixture between CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL, CF Pachuca has a 43% chance to win, while Tigres UANL sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. Pachuca's expected goals are 1.32, compared to Tigres' 0.97.
However, both teams to score has a 47% chance, indicating that a goal from Tigres could change the outcome. Recent form shows CF Pachuca with a record of L-L-D-L-D-W, while Tigres UANL has D-L-D-W-W-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions.
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL: model vs market
| Source | CF Pachuca | Draw | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.93.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.33, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (CF Pachuca / Tigres UANL)
- 1.02 / 0.72
- Defence rating (CF Pachuca / Tigres UANL)
- 1.01 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CF Pachuca goals. Columns: Tigres UANL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Pachuca | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Tigres UANL | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.15 |
| No | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CF Pachuca or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Tigres UANL) | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Pachuca win by 2+ | 23% | 4.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CF Pachuca and Tigres UANL recent form
CF Pachuca
1W 2D 3L
Tigres UANL
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CF Pachuca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tigres UANL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CF Pachuca at home only, Tigres UANL away only.
CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: CF Pachuca 1 · draws 0 · Tigres UANL 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Tigres UANL | 1-2 | CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-23 | CF Pachuca | 1-2 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- FC Juarez v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-31
- Atletico San Luis vs Atlas — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-31
- Monterrey vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC 2026-11-01
- Club America v Toluca — match page 2026-11-01
- Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Cruz Azul vs Leon 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- CF Pachuca, previous: Club America – CF Pachuca, 2026-10-26
- Tigres UANL, previous: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Tigres UANL: odds and pick