Club America vs Toluca preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Club America and Toluca, the 1X2 probabilities show Club America at 56%, while Toluca stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 83% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance for both teams to score.
Club America is in better recent form with a record of W-W-D-W-D-L, compared to Toluca's D-D-D-L-D-L. The expected goals are 2.69 for Club America and 1.81 for Toluca. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected results are possible.
Club America vs Toluca: model vs market
| Source | Club America | Draw | Toluca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| Market | 38% | 24% | 37% |
| Published | 41% | 23% | 35% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Club America below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Club America and Toluca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.34
- Attack rating (Club America / Toluca)
- 1.57 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Club America / Toluca)
- 1.13 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Club America vs Toluca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Club America goals. Columns: Toluca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Club America vs Toluca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 78%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Club America vs Toluca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Club America | 41% | 2.41 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Toluca | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78% | 1.28 |
| No | 22% | 4.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Club America or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Toluca) | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Club America win by 2+ | 33% | 3.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Club America and Toluca recent form
Club America
3W 2D 1L
Toluca
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Club America at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Toluca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Club America at home only, Toluca away only.
Club America vs Toluca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Club America 1 · draws 0 · Toluca 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Club America | 2-1 | Toluca | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-09 | Toluca | 2-0 | Club America | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- FC Juarez v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-31
- Atletico San Luis vs Atlas — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-31
- CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL — match page 2026-10-31
- Monterrey vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC 2026-11-01
- Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Cruz Azul vs Leon 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Club America, previous: Club America – Club Tijuana, 2026-10-29
- Toluca, previous: Leon – Toluca, 2026-10-24