Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Guadalajara Chivas at 62% to win, while Atlante FC sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 16% chance.
Guadalajara Chivas has an expected goals figure of 1.66 compared to Atlante FC's 0.59. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Chivas, but the low probability of Over 2.5 goals at 39% indicates a potential for a low-scoring match. Both teams to score is also low at 37%, which means if Atlante FC can improve their form, they could challenge the outcome.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC: model vs market
| Source | Guadalajara Chivas | Draw | Atlante FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 26% | 12% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Edge | 0% | +1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.59.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guadalajara Chivas, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.45 | 1.46 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.00 |
| Atlante FC | 5.94 | 5.94 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Guadalajara Chivas / Atlante FC)
- 0.99 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Guadalajara Chivas / Atlante FC)
- 0.66 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guadalajara Chivas goals. Columns: Atlante FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Atlante FC | 15% | 6.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guadalajara Chivas or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Atlante FC) | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guadalajara Chivas win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC recent form
Guadalajara Chivas
2W 3D 1L
Atlante FC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guadalajara Chivas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlante FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Guadalajara Chivas at home only, Atlante FC away only.
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- FC Juarez v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-31
- Atletico San Luis vs Atlas — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-31
- CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL — match page 2026-10-31
- Monterrey vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Club America v Toluca — match page 2026-11-01
- Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Cruz Azul vs Leon 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Guadalajara Chivas, previous: Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas analysis
- Atlante FC, previous: Atlante FC vs Atletico San Luis prediction