Santos Laguna vs Necaxa preview
Santos Laguna faces Necaxa with a 69% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Santos Laguna's expected goals of 2.36 compared to Necaxa's 0.89. However, recent form shows Santos Laguna has one loss in their last six matches, while Necaxa has not won in their last six, which could influence the outcome.
With a 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability for both teams to score, the match could see more action than expected. Despite Santos Laguna's strong position, their past head-to-head results show Necaxa has won both encounters, which could complicate predictions.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa: model vs market
| Source | Santos Laguna | Draw | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Santos Laguna and Necaxa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Santos Laguna / Necaxa)
- 1.12 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Santos Laguna / Necaxa)
- 0.92 / 1.27
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santos Laguna goals. Columns: Necaxa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santos Laguna vs Necaxa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santos Laguna | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Necaxa | 12% | 8.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santos Laguna or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Necaxa) | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santos Laguna win by 2+ | 47% | 2.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Santos Laguna and Necaxa recent form
Santos Laguna
5W 0D 1L
Necaxa
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santos Laguna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.43
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Necaxa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Santos Laguna at home only, Necaxa away only.
Santos Laguna vs Necaxa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Santos Laguna 0 · draws 0 · Necaxa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Santos Laguna | 1-3 | Necaxa | Liga MX |
| 2025-11-01 | Necaxa | 4-1 | Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
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- CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL — match page 2026-10-31
- Monterrey vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC 2026-11-01
- Club America v Toluca — match page 2026-11-01
- Cruz Azul vs Leon 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Santos Laguna, previous: Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna: odds and pick
- Necaxa, previous: Necaxa vs FC Juarez: odds and pick