Monterrey vs Club Tijuana preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Monterrey and Club Tijuana, the 1X2 probabilities show Monterrey at 54%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. Monterrey's expected goals are 1.80, while Club Tijuana's are lower at 1.06. This suggests Monterrey is the stronger side, but their recent form includes two losses in their last five matches.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Club Tijuana has drawn three of their last five matches, which could lead to a low-scoring outcome. With a confidence grade of C, there is some uncertainty in the predictions, making it possible for the match to deviate from expected results.
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana: model vs market
| Source | Monterrey | Draw | Club Tijuana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 18% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Monterrey and Club Tijuana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Monterrey / Club Tijuana)
- 1.05 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Monterrey / Club Tijuana)
- 0.94 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Monterrey goals. Columns: Club Tijuana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Monterrey vs Club Tijuana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterrey | 57% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Club Tijuana | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Monterrey or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Tijuana) | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monterrey win by 2+ | 27% | 3.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Monterrey and Club Tijuana recent form
Monterrey
3W 1D 2L
Club Tijuana
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Monterrey at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Club Tijuana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Monterrey at home only, Club Tijuana away only.
Monterrey vs Club Tijuana head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Monterrey 0 · draws 2 · Club Tijuana 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Monterrey | 2-2 | Club Tijuana | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-06 | Club Tijuana | 2-2 | Monterrey | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- FC Juarez v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-31
- Atletico San Luis vs Atlas — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-31
- CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL — match page 2026-10-31
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC 2026-11-01
- Club America v Toluca — match page 2026-11-01
- Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Cruz Azul vs Leon 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Monterrey, previous: Monterrey v Guadalajara Chivas analysis
- Club Tijuana, previous: Club America – Club Tijuana, 2026-10-29