Cruz Azul vs Leon preview
Cruz Azul faces Leon with a 56% chance of winning, while Leon has a 23% chance according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 9%. The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is high at 70%, and both teams to score stands at 68%.
Cruz Azul's recent form shows 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, while Leon has 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. If Cruz Azul's defense falters or Leon finds their scoring touch, the predicted outcome could change.
Cruz Azul vs Leon: model vs market
| Source | Cruz Azul | Draw | Leon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 22% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cruz Azul and Leon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Cruz Azul / Leon)
- 1.46 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Cruz Azul / Leon)
- 1.01 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cruz Azul vs Leon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cruz Azul goals. Columns: Leon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cruz Azul vs Leon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cruz Azul vs Leon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cruz Azul | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Leon | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cruz Azul or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Leon) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Cruz Azul and Leon recent form
Cruz Azul
3W 2D 1L
Leon
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cruz Azul at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
Leon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Cruz Azul at home only, Leon away only.
Cruz Azul vs Leon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cruz Azul 1 · draws 0 · Leon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Leon | 2-1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2025-07-27 | Cruz Azul | 4-1 | Leon | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- FC Juarez v Club Queretaro — match page 2026-10-31
- Atletico San Luis vs Atlas — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Puebla vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2026-10-31
- CF Pachuca v Tigres UANL — match page 2026-10-31
- Monterrey vs Club Tijuana — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Guadalajara Chivas vs Atlante FC 2026-11-01
- Club America v Toluca — match page 2026-11-01
- Santos Laguna vs Necaxa — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Cruz Azul, previous: Club Queretaro v Cruz Azul analysis
- Leon, previous: Leon – Toluca, 2026-10-24