Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul preview
In the Liga MX fixture between Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul, the 1X2 probabilities show Tigres UANL at 30%, Cruz Azul at 44%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 10%.
Cruz Azul comes into this match with strong recent form, having 4 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 games, while Tigres UANL has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. The expected goals are 1.02 for Tigres UANL and 1.66 for Cruz Azul. With 50% for Over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, the match could still deviate from these predictions based on performance on the day.
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul: model vs market
| Source | Tigres UANL | Draw | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Published | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cruz Azul, 9 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 2.83 | 3.20 | +0.37 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.60 | +0.10 |
| Cruz Azul | 2.26 | 2.06 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Tigres UANL / Cruz Azul)
- 0.65 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Tigres UANL / Cruz Azul)
- 0.91 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tigres UANL goals. Columns: Cruz Azul goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tigres UANL | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Cruz Azul | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tigres UANL or draw) | 53% | 1.88 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Cruz Azul) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cruz Azul win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tigres UANL and Cruz Azul recent form
Tigres UANL
2W 2D 2L
Cruz Azul
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tigres UANL at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cruz Azul away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 9 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Tigres UANL at home only, Cruz Azul away only.
Tigres UANL vs Cruz Azul head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Tigres UANL 2 · draws 5 · Cruz Azul 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Cruz Azul | 2-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-07 | Tigres UANL | 1-1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2025-12-04 | Cruz Azul | 1-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2025-10-05 | Tigres UANL | 1-1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2025-05-02 | Cruz Azul | 1-0 | Tigres UANL | CONCACAF Champions League |
| 2025-04-24 | Tigres UANL | 1-1 | Cruz Azul | CONCACAF Champions League |
| 2025-02-16 | Tigres UANL | 2-1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| 2024-11-10 | Cruz Azul | 1-1 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2024-02-18 | Cruz Azul | 1-0 | Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| 2023-10-22 | Tigres UANL | 2-1 | Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
Other Apertura - 16 fixtures
- Necaxa v Club Tijuana — match page 2026-11-07
- Atletico San Luis vs FC Juarez — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Atlante FC vs Santos Laguna 2026-11-07
- Atlas vs CF Pachuca — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Toluca vs Monterrey 2026-11-08
- U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Club America — match page 2026-11-08
- Club Queretaro vs Puebla — team news & stats 2026-11-09
- Leon vs Guadalajara Chivas 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Tigres UANL, previous: CF Pachuca vs Tigres UANL: odds and pick
- Cruz Azul, previous: Cruz Azul vs Leon prediction